# Incidence/prevalence of Type 1 in the US - looking for reliable numbers

I've done some research on the epidemiology of Type 1 in the US. I can't seem to find a reliable number that reflects either the entire population of Type 1s (children and adults) or, especially , those who live with Type 1 who are under the age of 19. The CDC page (link below) says that 13,000 young people are diagnosed every year in the US. Simple math (too simple, I know, but follow the thinking) says that 13,000 x 19 = 247,000. On the same page it says that the incidence for young people is 1.7 per thousand. The US Census says that 28% of the US population is under the age of 18 - 85 million. 85,000,000 x .0017 = 144,500. (close to the 151,000 noted on the same page).

http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/projects/cda2.htm

The JDRF page says that 15,000 young people and 15,000 adults are diagnosed with Type 1 each year = 30,000 total. The average lifespan of someone who lives with Type 1 is 68 years (simple math - I know too simple...but) says that there should be approximately 2 million people living with Type 1 in the US. That number seems high but the JDRF says it is as high as 3 million.

http://www.jdrf.org/index.cfm?page_id=102585

Interested in anyone's take or help - I'm not a mathematician or statistitian.

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### Replies to This Discussion

I would recommend trying to contact Dan Hurley, the author of the most excellent book 'Diabetes Rising'. I suspect the number of type 1's in the US is 2.5-3 million. Although type 1 used to be called 'juvenile diabetes', I think the number of young adults - those in their 20's and 30's that are diagnosed exceed the number of those under 19 years old. There's definitely a bunch of us.

Not to mention those diagnosed in our 40s and 50s!

The average life expectancy of T1 diabetics is much higher than 68 years. This figure is true for participants diagnosed with type 1 diabetes between 1965 and 1980. Most importantly this figure is 15 years higher, compared to those diagnosed between 1950 and 1964, according to this study. Meanwhile, the life expectancy of the general U.S. population increased less than one year during the same time period. The bottom line is that the average life expectancy for T1 diabetics diagnosed after 1980 is rising quickly. I would assume that the difference is only 5 years or less.

Australia has 130,000 Type 1s, our population is 22,620,600. Our ethnic origins are closely related to the USA, so 0.5% of USA's 313,914,040 is 1.8 million.

There where STATS printed in a japanese biologist magazine i read amount of people with D in the USA

in 2010 there where 20.9 million with D.That was according to the CDC.Acorrding to the ADA 25.8 million people have D,There breakdown of there DATA

Total: 25.8 million children and adults in the United States—8.3% of the population—have diabetes.

Diagnosed: 18.8 million people

Undiagnosed: 7.0 million people

Prediabetes: 79 million people*

New Cases: 1.9 million new cases of diabetes are diagnosed in people aged 20 years and older in 2010.8.1% are T1
What ever true DATA is its just shocking what numbers are it's an epidemic,All data CDC/ADA 2010 Data.

Unfortunately, in the U.S. Type 1 diabetes is not a reportable disease, so the information on prevalence and indicence is not very good. The situation is compounded by the fact that a large percentage of people with adult-onset Type 1 diabetes are misdiagnosed and classified as having Type 2 diabetes, strictly based on age not etiology (when autoantibody testing is performed on people with "Type 2" diabetes, about 10% are antibody positive, have autoimmune diabetes, and have been misdiagnosed). The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) most current information on the prevalence and incidence of Type 1 diabetes comes from Diabetes in America, Chapter 3, “Prevalence and Incidence of Insulin-Dependent Diabetes” (Diabetes in America, Second Edition, 1995). Although people who use that reference as a source of incidence statistics state that there are about 30,000 new cases of Type 1 diabetes each year and that half of those cases are children. In fact, that source states that children (<20 years of age) account for 13,171 cases and adults (>20 years of age) account for 16,542 cases, for a total of 29,713 new cases of Type 1 diabetes per year, 56% seen in adults. Furthermore, that source states that there is an “unknown number of adults identified as NIDDM (non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus, now called Type 2 diabetes) who have slowly progressive IDDM (insulin dependent diabetes mellitus, now called Type 1 diabetes).” In summary, of those new onset Type 1 diabetics who are correctly diagnosed, 56% are adults, and an unknown number of new onset Type 1 diabetics have been misdiagnosed as having Type 2 diabetes. In short, it's complicated and there are not good statistics.

I've read numbers as low as 1 million Americans and as high as 3 million Americans. Finland has the highest percentage of Type 1s (I think that was in Dan Hurley's book).

At Portland's Diabetes Summit this year, the key speaker stated that type 1 is rising 3%/year on average, with the largest increase in toddlers at 5%.

This website at least gives references: http://www.diabetesandenvironment.org/home/incidence/gender-age

I think many Boomers have lived unhealthy life styles and this is why we see a spike in Diabetes. Many of us have lived a life of excess, sex drugs and rock and roll, are parents predictions where right in spite of medical advancements our generation is not aging well, to much of a good thing has proven to be our down fall.

Boomers aging worse than past generation:http://www.nbcnews.com/id/50698468/ns/health-health_care/?ocid=msnh...

We should not mix T1 and T2 here.

So far there is no good explanation for the rise in T1 cases. Epidemeologists see a relation between vitamin D supplementation of young children and T1 development. Countries with less sunshine like Finland show more cases of T1. Sunlight is related to vitamin D production in the skin. Here the researchers believe that the immune system is positively influenced by the presence of vitamin D and that makes it less likely that it will develop autoimmune conditions. The big unknown is the driver behind the rise of the last 15 years. It is pure speculation on my part but perhaps polution in the form of aerosols and cloud cumulation based on these aerosols play a role here. These particles might have the potential to reduce those wavelengths of the light that are helpful for vitamin D production. This theory can be wrong of course. The explanation can be much easier. Perhaps the vitamin D production is just defective in T1 diabetics due to factors we have not understood yet. The Epidemeologists could show that the capability to produce vitamin D is declining with the age of T1 diabetics (study in the military). In most families with T1 diabetics you will find multiple autoimmune conditions (skin, thyroid etc). T1 is just a case of autoimmunity that has focused on the beta cells. So far only the statistics and experiences of the past in Finland point to vitamin D but inheritance, pollution, agents and other factors might be involved too.

Holger

You are correct,With Vit D and daylight not winter time that is so true,But the UK has the highest case of T1 in europe.Was reading DATA in work on it,Also UK is one of the best keepers of DATA on D in world and keeps vast amounts of DATA.The other reason for increase in T1 is that children are growing faster and aging quicker,Vit D intake and staying indoors,There not exposed to pathogens and may be we live too much of clean life if that makes sense to any one and feel that is true as where to : cleansing in our lifestyles,The other is diets and food,modern day chemicals we use in our lives,Children also go through stress levels like adults and live a 24/7 exerstence these day,But the biggets pick up is mordern classification and diagnostic criteria of diabetes mellitus and public awareness in schools and health professionals but list is huge,As to DATA i have been reading by 2012 there will be more children aged 10 and under with T2 than with T1 and i find that alarming to say the least and mordern day foods that are every day Consumption by the young am saying FAST FOOD and worse of all fructose corn syrup or HFCS as we call them in my work,I feel that this is killing a generation of adults not war but food because we have too much to consume.In the USA alone third are over weight and the other third have Obesity,When i get told that more children with have T2 than T1 by 2015 and then it shows how crazy the world has come.

The other is influenza that can cause a pathogenic bacteria attack and that to can be a common cause.

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